HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd April 2026.

Middle East De-escalation Pressures the Dollar Despite Warsh Hearing.

The US Dollar is seeing notable price swings and heightened volatility. Investors are closely watching Kevin Warsh’s hearing, while also reacting to fresh developments in the Middle East. Yesterday, the Dollar was the best performing currency largely due to Warsh reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s independence and tackling inflation.

However, the currency is correcting back downwards this morning as the market prices in de-escalation within the Middle East. The best-performing currencies during this morning’s Asian session are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. This is due to their recent high inflation reports, which are most likely going to prompt a hawkish monetary policy.

Meanwhile, US investors are assessing the Senate Banking Committee hearing of Kevin Warsh, a candidate for Chair of the US Federal Reserve. Known for supporting balance sheet reduction, Warsh is seen by analysts as someone who could reduce market liquidity, lift government bond yields, and strengthen the US Dollar. Bond yields rose on Tuesday, which is positive for the Dollar, but are retracing this morning so far.

His remarks echoed themes from earlier this week, including a ‘regime change’ in monetary policy and a new inflation framework. Markets saw this as a possible signal of tighter conditions. A day earlier, Donald Trump told CNBC he would be disappointed if Warsh did not cut borrowing costs immediately. That would follow Senate confirmation.

However, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said that would be the wrong move. He wants more clarity on a possible end to the Iran conflict. He warned a prolonged escalation could hurt household budgets and fuel inflation.

Most economists say policy will likely remain uncertain until Kevin Warsh holds his first press conference as Fed Chair. Currently, some senators are delaying approval until the government drops charges against current Chair Jerome Powell over the building refurbishments.

While some of the factors above are supportive for the US Dollar, easing tensions in the Middle East are weighing on the currency. This is because lower geopolitical risk tends to reduce demand for safe-haven assets.

The price of the GBPUSD is moving in favour of the British Pound despite political and economic risks to the UK. The exchange rate has dipped in the past few days but continues to show little bearish strength and momentum. As a result, the GBPUSD continues to maintain a bullish bias with many indicators. However, if the US Dollar Index gains momentum, the exchange rate may again fall, similar to February and March.

HFM - GBPUSD 1-Hour Chart

UK macroeconomic expectations have worsened this year amid rising geopolitical risks and weaker business activity. Analysts at Ernst & Young and Deloitte point to the prolonged US–Iran conflict as a key factor, as it is disrupting global supply chains and pushing energy costs higher. EY expects the UK economy to stagnate in the second and third quarters, with annual growth slowing from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.7% this year.

Analysts expect the labour market to weaken, with unemployment projected to reach 5.8% by mid-2027, implying around 250,000 job losses. Inflation may approach 4.0% in the second half of the year, well above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target.

This morning, the UK’s inflation rate was confirmed to have risen from 3.0% to 3.3% as expected. Investors will now turn their attention to the UK’s Services and Manufacturing PMI reports tomorrow morning.

The main factor supporting NZD/USD was stronger Q1 inflation data. Headline CPI rose from 0.6% to 0.9% (QoQ), above the 0.8% forecast.

The details were more concerning, with non-tradable inflation, a key measure of domestic price pressure, rising 1.1% versus the RBNZ’s 0.9% estimate, and reaching 3.5% annually. Tradable inflation was lower at 0.7% quarterly and 2.5% yearly. These figures also do not yet fully reflect the impact of disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz supply risks. As a result, investors have raised expectations for tighter monetary policy, with a rate hike now priced in by July and up to three 25-basis-point increases expected by year-end.

HFM - NZDUSD 1-Hour Chart

The New Zealand Dollar is one of the best-performing currencies of April and is trading above key Moving Averages. However, the resistance level at 0.59215 is a real concern for technical analysts. The asset has fallen at this resistance level on five occasions over the past week alone.

Key Takeaways:

• Warsh’s hearing initially supported the US Dollar, but easing Middle East tensions are now pressuring it lower.
• Markets view Warsh’s stance on Fed independence, inflation, and balance sheet reduction as supportive of the Dollar.
• GBP/USD is still holding a bullish tone. This is despite weakening UK growth expectations, rising inflation, and concerns over the labour market.
• The New Zealand Dollar is gaining support from inflation. Stronger CPI data has boosted expectations of RBNZ rate hikes, though 0.59215 remains a key resistance level for NZD/USD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 23rd April 2026.

Iran Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Drives Oil Surge and Risk-Off Markets

The double blockade and the Middle East crisis have escalated in the past 12 hours as Iran attacks three ships. Earlier this week, the US seized ships bound for Iranian ports. Tehran now looks eager to match the US actions like for like. This is the first time in recent weeks that Iran has attacked commercial shipping, but the Iranian administration has gone a step further, seizing two ships and taking them to an Iranian port.

Analysts and traders are viewing Iran’s decision as a clear escalation and a risk to any potential negotiations. Most political experts advise that the US will now look at an economic war against Iran as the conflict was unable to achieve its objectives. So far on Thursday, the developments are creating a ‘risk-off’ environment.

The US is yet to comment and confirm whether the information from Iranian state TV is correct. Nonetheless, Iranian TV reported that Iranian authorities seized two cargo ships and took them to Iranian ports without harming their crews. It also reported that they fired on a third ship, without providing further details.

The incidents are widely seen as retaliatory, following recent US seizures of Iranian vessels. They also point to a rapidly deteriorating security environment in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes.

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minutes Chart

Due to the developments, the price rose from $89.90 yesterday to a high of $99.55 early this morning. As the news was made public this morning, the price rose almost 5.00% over a period of 30 minutes. Technical analysis is now providing a bullish bias, with the price trading clearly above the 200-bar moving average on smaller timeframes.

A concern for investors is that the US is now attempting to pressure Iran to the negotiation table by economic means. The US blockade is not allowing Iranian oil to be exported via Iranian ports, most importantly from Kharg Island. However, if oil does not flow through the pipes, experts advise the whole production and exporting mechanism can be permanently damaged.

If Iran reaches this phase, it will be able to export the same level of oil for a prolonged period. This would further pressure oil supplies and keep Crude Oil prices elevated. According to experts, if the Strait remains closed past 15 May, the price can remain above $100 for many weeks.

The US Dollar increases and the stock market declines as a result of the developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline among stocks is less certain as the category is clearly in an upward trend and will be strongly influenced by quarterly earnings reports in the upcoming two weeks. However, the upward price action in the Dollar is more directly related to the developments without other external factors.

The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day followed by the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian Dollar tends to rise with higher oil prices.

In addition to the above, Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he made no promises to the Republican administration on rate cuts, aiming to show independence from the White House. However, Trump advised he would be disappointed if borrowing costs do not fall after the Fed leadership change.

• Iran seized two ships and attacked a third, escalating tensions after recent US moves to seize Iranian ships.
• Markets turned risk-off; crude oil surged nearly 5% intraday amid supply disruption fears.
• Strait of Hormuz instability threatens global oil flows, with prices potentially staying above $100.
• The US Dollar strengthened as investors sought safety; equities showed mixed reactions despite a broader upward trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 24th April 2026.

Markets Caught Between War Risks and Strong Earnings.

Global markets are closing the week in a fragile balance, caught between escalating geopolitical tensions and resilient corporate performance. While the conflict between the United States and Iran continues to disrupt energy markets, investors are not fully retreating yet.

At the center of the story is oil, but the ripple effects are now spreading across currencies, bonds, equities, and overall market sentiment.

Oil prices have now risen for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent Crude pushing towards the $100-105 range and West Texas Intermediate trading close to $96-97 per barrel.

The rally reflects growing concern that supply disruptions could persist longer than expected. The key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Normally responsible for transporting around 20% of global oil and gas flows, the strait remains effectively closed amid military tensions, naval blockades, and attacks on vessels. As long as flows remain restricted, oil markets are likely to stay tight, supporting elevated prices.

Despite a temporary ceasefire extension announced by Donald Trump, there has been little meaningful progress towards de-escalation.

Military operations in the region continue, with US forces intensifying efforts to secure shipping routes, while Iran has responded with aggressive actions, including vessel seizures and attacks.

This leaves markets facing ongoing uncertainty, with no clear timeline for resolution, keeping risk premiums elevated, particularly in energy markets.

Higher oil prices are beginning to feed into broader macro concerns.

Energy costs influence everything from transportation to production, meaning sustained price increases could reignite global inflation pressures. This presents a challenge for central banks that had been hoping for a more stable inflation environment.

Asian equity markets reflected this cautious sentiment.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 moved higher, supported by strong demand for technology stocks and recent bullish momentum.

However, most regional markets declined:

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged lower
• China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped
• South Korea’s KOSPI and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also posted losses

Taiwan stood out as a key outperformer, with the TAIEX surging, driven by gains in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, highlighting continued strength in the semiconductor sector.

In the US, markets paused after a strong rally that pushed major indices to record levels.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declined modestly, while the Nasdaq Composite fell more sharply.

The pullback reflects profit-taking rather than panic. Strong corporate earnings continue to support sentiment, with a large majority of companies exceeding expectations this season.

Technology stocks remain a key pillar of resilience, particularly in semiconductors.

Individual stocks also contributed to market movements.

Shares of Tesla declined despite strong earnings, as investors reacted to rising capital expenditures linked to artificial intelligence investments.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global both moved lower following developments around their merger.

At the same time, Meta Platforms and Microsoft signalled restructuring efforts, including job cuts, as they continue to invest heavily in AI.

Beyond equities, the broader macro impact is becoming more visible.

The US dollar is strengthening, supported by safe-haven demand and shifting rate expectations. Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields are edging higher, reflecting renewed concerns around inflation.

Precious metals, including gold and silver, have moved slightly lower, suggesting markets are not fully in risk-off mode despite geopolitical tensions.

Despite rising risks, markets remain relatively resilient. Much of this stability comes from the belief that tensions will eventually ease and that disruptions will be temporary.

For now, traders are watching three key factors closely:

• Developments in the Strait of Hormuz
• Progress in US-Iran diplomatic talks
• The direction of oil prices and inflation expectations

If tensions escalate further, oil could move higher, increasing pressure on inflation and weighing on risk sentiment. On the other hand, signs of de-escalation could quickly support equities and ease energy markets.

At this stage, markets remain highly sensitive to headlines, with sentiment capable of shifting rapidly.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 27th April 2026.

This Week’s Big Tech Earnings Could Decide the Market’s Next Move.

President Trump’s Secret Service agent may have had their eyes on a violent intruder, but investors have theirs on major earnings reports. The upcoming week will see Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple release their quarterly earnings reports. These companies are some of the most influential for the stock market and make up 42% of the NASDAQ’s weight.

The stocks have been the best-performing assets in the month of April after declining for two straight months. So far the NASDAQ and NIKKEI 225 are the best-performing indices, both increasing almost 15% and trading at all-time highs. Bloomberg's Bull Bear Spread Index has turned positive for the first time since February. However, their upcoming performance will depend largely on the upcoming earnings reports and the price of oil which remains elevated.

HFM - NASDAQ Daily Chart

Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings reports on Wednesday after market close, with the press conference early during Thursday’s Asian session. The stock has been one of the best performing over the past 12 months with the stock rising more than 110%. Market expectations for earnings are between $106-$107 billion in revenue and $2.62-$2.73 EPS, depending on the source.

In addition to the quarterly earnings report, the stock will also be influenced by cloud growth and AI monetisation.

After Alphabet, Apple’s earnings report will be the most influential of the week as it holds more than a 10% weight. Market expectations are clustered around roughly $1.92-$1.95 EPS and about $109 billion in revenue, depending on the fund manager. If the figures read higher than expected, the stock has the potential to rise. However, the stock will also largely depend on iPhone demand, the Chinese market, and investments in AI.

S&P Global notes that analysts expect iPhone sales to have edged higher to around 60 million for the current quarter. If higher, this could further support the stock. Lastly, investors will be focusing on the company’s attempt to regain momentum in China, which is a key market for the company historically.

Lastly, Apple is still under pressure to prove its AI roadmap can compete with other mega-cap tech names. Any commentary around Apple Intelligence, Siri improvements, on-device AI, or AI-enabled hardware could influence the stock more than the headline numbers.

Microsoft stocks, even though they are one of the most influential for the stock market, are also one of the struggling stocks over the past year. The stock remains one of the most influential in the market, but it has also been among the underperformers. The stock has only risen 8% in the past 12 months and still remains more than 10% lower in 2026.

Market expectations are around $4.04 EPS and roughly $81.3-$81.4 billion in revenue. Azure is the headline metric. Investors will be looking for confirmation that AI workloads are still supporting strong cloud growth. Microsoft’s AI story now needs proof of monetisation, with investors watching Copilot adoption, enterprise demand, and whether AI is driving real revenue growth.

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart

Stock traders monitoring the medium to longer term outlook will also be closely focusing on oil prices and the Middle East. Investors are currently fully pricing an end to the conflict, but not any global or economic repercussions.

Negotiations over the weekend did not take place, which had a negative impact on supply. The US has confirmed that the double blockade remains in place. However, on Monday morning, Iran signalled it would accept an interim deal whereby the Strait of Hormuz reopens in exchange for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports. However, this is yet to trigger any decline in oil prices. Nonetheless, traders will continue to monitor this development over the upcoming hours.

1. Mega-cap earnings will be the main market driver this week, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple in focus.
2. Alphabet and Apple results are key, especially AI, cloud, iPhone demand, and China performance.
3. Microsoft needs to prove AI monetisation, with Azure growth and Copilot adoption under focus.
4. Oil remains a major risk, as Middle East tensions keep prices elevated.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 28th April 2026.

JPY Rises as BoJ Delivers Hawkish Pause.

The Japanese Yen is the day’s best-performing currency despite the Bank of Japan keeping rates at 0.75%. Many members of the committee voting on Japan’s monetary policy voted for a rate hike despite the pause ultimately coming out on top. As a result, investors view the bank’s decision as a hawkish pause.

The Japanese Yen index has risen 0.18% while the US Dollar has risen 0.09%. The fact that the Yen and the Dollar are the day’s best-performing currencies indicates investors are taking a slight ‘risk-off’ view. This is most likely due to Crude Oil prices again rising above $100 per barrel.

The USDJPY has been trading within range-bound trading conditions since March 9. The Japanese Yen has been the only currency which has been unable to regain lost value over the past month. This has provided clear support and resistance levels, which can be seen at 157.870 and 159.960.

HFM - USDJPY 6-Hour Chart

The average price of the range is 159.118 which leans towards the resistance level indicating the partial bullish bias. However, with the market now expecting the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates in June, investors need to monitor any possible change in price conditions.

Strategists believe the Bank of Japan will use signals related to interest rates and Japanese bond purchase decisions in June to manage market expectations. The focus will be on Governor Ueda’s press conference and how he frames the outlook for June. Currently, investors believe the Bank of Japan will increase rates to 1.00%. More information on the split of today’s meeting can be found in today’s article.

If the Bank of Japan indeed increases interest rates by 0.25%, the Japanese Yen may find temporary support. The term “temporary” is continuously used as markets are now expecting a more hawkish stance generally across all economies. At the same time the Bank of Japan is known to lag behind other regulators when it comes to adjustments. Therefore, unless markets are confident the BoJ will continue to increase rates, the Yen may continue to struggle.

In the short term, price action supports the USDJPY declining as the price trades below the 200-bar moving average. Deviation analysis indicates that the USDJPY tends to retrace or lose momentum as the price deviates by 0.29%. Currently, the price is deviating away from the moving average by 0.15%, and the price trades above the oversold area of the RSI. For this reason in the short term the price is not indicating an oversold price despite the downward momentum.

The US Dollar is currently finding support from the slight ‘risk-off’ tone within the market as well as higher oil prices. However, investors are evaluating whether the new Federal Reserve Chair would take a more dovish tone. The current Chair, Jerome Powell, may remain on the Board of Governors for another two years or leave. Experts believe that if he decides to stay, he will challenge Warsh’s push to lower interest rates. As a result, if this materializes it may support the Dollar.

Several opposing factors are influencing oil prices. On one hand, reports that Iran has proposed new peace initiatives to the US, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, are pressuring prices. However, it remains unclear whether the White House will agree to this, as the proposal appears to postpone discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme. So far, the US administration has told journalists that President Trump is sceptical of Iran’s proposal.

Overall, the supply situation remains challenging, with consumers facing energy shortages due to a sharp decline in shipping activity. Before the war, up to 140 large vessels passed through the Strait daily, compared with only seven bulk carriers over the past 24 hours.

HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart

Technical analysis currently shows a bullish bias as moving averages have crossed over upwards and the price forms clear breakouts. However, the question remains as to whether the price can break the psychological price of $100.

1. The Yen strengthened after a hawkish BoJ pause, despite rates remaining unchanged at 0.75%.
2. Markets now expect the BoJ to potentially raise interest rates to 1.00% in June.
3. USDJPY remains range-bound, but short-term momentum currently favours further downside.
4. Oil prices remain supported by supply concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and reduced shipping activity.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 29th April 2026.

UAE Exits OPEC: Oil Falls, Markets Brace for the Federal Reserve.

Global financial markets are navigating a complex mix of geopolitical tension, shifting energy dynamics, and critical macroeconomic events.

Oil prices have come under pressure following the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC, while Asian equities have shown resilience despite weakness on Wall Street. At the same time, investors are closely watching the upcoming decision from the Federal Reserve and a wave of earnings from major technology companies.

This combination of factors is creating a fragile but opportunity-rich environment for traders.

At first glance, falling oil prices may seem counterintuitive given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, markets are currently balancing two opposing forces.

On one hand, the UAE’s exit from OPEC signals a potential increase in global oil supply. The country has long expressed frustration with production quotas and is expected to expand output once it leaves the group. This weakens OPEC’s ability to control supply and stabilise prices.

On the other hand, geopolitical risks remain elevated. The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, alongside stalled US-Iran negotiations, continues to support oil prices.

As a result, oil markets are not trending in a clear direction. Instead, traders are seeing increased volatility, driven by headlines rather than fundamentals alone.

Equity markets are telling a slightly different story.

In the United States, major indices retreated from recent highs. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both declined, led by weakness in technology stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom.

Meanwhile, Asian markets moved higher, with gains in the Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and KOSPI.

This divergence highlights a key theme in current markets: regional momentum and positioning differences. Asian equities are benefiting from strong inflows and optimism around artificial intelligence, while US markets are experiencing profit-taking after a strong rally.

While oil and equities are dominating headlines, developments in China and the copper market are offering an additional layer of insight into global economic expectations.

Copper prices have recently moved higher, supported by renewed buying interest from Chinese manufacturers ahead of the Labor Day holiday. As the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, China plays a critical role in shaping demand dynamics for copper.

Often referred to as “Dr. Copper” for its ability to diagnose the health of the global economy, the metal is widely used in construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing. As such, price movements can act as a leading indicator of economic activity.

The latest uptick suggests short-term demand resilience, particularly as buyers take advantage of recent price declines to replenish inventories. However, the broader picture remains mixed. Concerns about global growth persist, while regulatory tightening in China’s commodity markets could limit trading activity and slow inventory drawdowns.

For traders, this creates an important contrast. While oil is being driven primarily by geopolitical developments and equities by artificial intelligence optimism, copper reflects underlying industrial demand, particularly from China.

This divergence highlights a key takeaway: markets are currently being influenced by multiple, and sometimes conflicting, narratives. When signals across asset classes are not aligned, it often points to an environment where volatility can increase and trends become less predictable.

Technology stocks remain central to the broader market narrative.

Investors are closely watching earnings from major players, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms.

The sector is expected to deliver strong growth, driven largely by continued investment in artificial intelligence. Estimates suggest that capital expenditure among these companies could exceed $500 billion in 2026, with earnings growth significantly outpacing other sectors.

For traders, this means that market direction in the near term may depend heavily on whether these companies meet or exceed expectations. Strong results could support the ongoing rally, while disappointments may trigger a broader pullback.

Alongside earnings, the upcoming decision from the Federal Reserve represents a major risk event.

The central bank faces a challenging environment. Elevated oil prices have the potential to push inflation higher, complicating the outlook for interest rate cuts. At the same time, economic uncertainty remains, particularly given geopolitical tensions.

Markets will be paying close attention not only to the rate decision itself but also to forward guidance. Any shift in tone regarding inflation or monetary policy could have a significant impact across asset classes.

While equities remain relatively resilient, other asset classes suggest a more cautious tone.

Gold extended its decline yesterday following a technical breakdown from its recent consolidation range. The primary headwind for precious metals continues to be the increasingly hawkish stance from central banks, driven by renewed inflation concerns.

This backdrop is unlikely to shift in the near term. US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before engaging in nuclear negotiations, keeping geopolitical tensions elevated. At the same time, with US equity markets trading at record highs, there appears to be limited immediate political or market pressure for compromise.

However, this dynamic raises the risk of a more significant market correction ahead. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period and oil prices stay elevated, inflationary pressures could intensify. In such a scenario, the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain a tighter policy stance for longer, or even consider additional rate hikes in the coming months.

US Treasury yields have held steady, suggesting that markets are not yet pricing in a major shift in macro conditions, but this could change quickly depending on upcoming developments.

With multiple catalysts in play, the coming days could be pivotal for market direction.

Key areas to monitor include:

• Developments in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz
• The impact of the UAE’s exit from OPEC on oil supply
• Earnings results from major technology companies
• Guidance from the Federal Reserve

Markets are currently being shaped by three dominant themes: energy, technology, and monetary policy.

Oil is reacting to both structural changes in supply and ongoing geopolitical risks. Equities are being driven by expectations around AI and corporate earnings. Meanwhile, central bank policy remains a key uncertainty.

For traders, this is not a market defined by a single trend, but by the interaction of multiple forces. Staying flexible and responsive to new information will be essential in navigating the current environment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

[HFM]

Date: 30th April 2026.

Oil Prices Hit Four-Year High as Fed Turns Hawkish | Market Outlook.

Global markets are entering a more fragile phase as traders navigate a powerful combination of surging oil prices, escalating Middle East tensions, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

The dominant driver right now is energy.

Brent crude surged to nearly $126 per barrel, marking its highest level in almost four years, as the conflict between the US and Iran continues to disrupt global supply. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, has effectively choked off flows, creating what the International Energy Agency has called the largest supply shock in history.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports that President Donald Trump is considering new military options in Iran have reinforced fears that the conflict could escalate further, keeping oil prices elevated and volatility high.

Despite strong earnings from major technology companies, global equity markets are starting to lose momentum.

Initial optimism driven by results from Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. quickly faded, with futures on the Nasdaq 100 turning negative. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms Inc. disappointed investors, highlighting that even the tech sector is not immune to pressure.

While the AI-driven growth narrative continues to support valuations, the broader market is showing signs that earnings strength alone may not be enough to offset rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision added another layer of complexity for markets.

Although the Fed kept rates unchanged, the tone of the meeting was more hawkish than expected. A growing division among policymakers and dissent against any easing bias suggest that interest rates could remain ‘higher for longer’, with markets even beginning to price in the possibility of future rate hikes.

This shift is reinforcing concerns about inflation, especially as rising oil prices feed into broader price pressures, reviving fears of a stagflationary environment.

The impact is already visible across asset classes.

US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield holding near recent highs, while Japanese government bond yields have climbed to levels not seen since the late 1990s. At the same time, the US Dollar is strengthening for a third consecutive session.

This combination, rising oil prices, a stronger US Dollar, and falling stocks and bonds, signals a broader repricing of risk rather than a temporary market pullback.

In the currency market, the Japanese Yen remains under heavy pressure, trading near 160 against the dollar.

The widening interest rate gap between the US and Japan continues to weigh on the currency, especially as the Bank of Japan delays further policy tightening. With liquidity thinning during Japan’s Golden Week, traders are increasingly focused on the risk of government intervention to stabilise the Yen.

Gold prices are failing to benefit from the geopolitical backdrop.

Despite ongoing tensions, gold remains under pressure after falling sharply in recent weeks. The main driver is the rise in bond yields and a stronger US dollar, both of which reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

As a result, inflation expectations and interest rate outlooks are currently outweighing traditional safe-haven demand.

Beyond price action, the oil market is facing growing structural challenges.

Major energy companies, including Shell Plc, PetroChina Co., and TotalEnergies SE, are becoming involved in disputes over undelivered cargoes.

With shipments disrupted and contracts being terminated, the industry is dealing with a complex web of legal and financial risks that could run into billions of dollars, further weighing on market confidence.

Looking ahead, traders are facing a market driven by multiple competing forces.

On one hand, strong tech earnings and AI-driven growth continue to provide support. On the other, rising oil prices, persistent inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainty are creating downside pressure.

The key takeaway is clear: markets are no longer driven by a single narrative. Instead, they are reacting to a mix of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and sector-specific developments, an environment that typically leads to higher volatility and sharper price swings.

Markets are entering a high-risk, high-volatility regime driven by three key forces:

1. Geopolitical escalation (Iran conflict) → Oil spike
2. Hawkish central banks → Higher yields, stronger dollar
3. Tech resilience → Temporary support for equities

But the balance is shifting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

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