HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 17th February 2026.

Market Wrap: Tech Weakness Extends as AI Fears and Geopolitics Weigh on Sentiment.

Global markets reopened Tuesday with a cautious tone as investors returned from the US Presidents’ Day holiday to find risk appetite still fragile. Equity-index futures signalled further downside in US technology stocks, while bond markets attracted renewed demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting expectations around monetary policy.

Futures linked to the S&P 500 declined roughly 0.4%, while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 0.8%, indicating that the recent pullback in growth and AI-linked names may not be over. The technology sector, which had driven much of the market’s upside momentum in recent months, continues to face pressure as investors reassess valuations and the longer-term implications of AI disruption.

Last week’s inflation data complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and traders now await further signals from upcoming Fed commentary and minutes from January’s policy meeting.

US Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield slipping to around 4.02%, reflecting defensive positioning. The Japanese yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, strengthened against the dollar, reinforcing the shift toward caution.

In Japan, government bonds rallied across the curve following stronger-than-expected demand at a five-year auction, suggesting that expectations for near-term tightening by the Bank of Japan are softening.

Trading volumes in Asia were subdued as markets in China, Hong Kong, and several regional centres remained closed for the Lunar New Year. Elsewhere in the region, equity performance was mixed, with Australia and India posting modest gains.

European markets have prepared for a weaker open. In the UK, the pound weakened after unemployment climbed to a near five-year high and wage growth moderated, data that could influence the Bank of England’s rate trajectory in the coming months.

Geopolitical risks re-emerged as a key driver of market tone. Iran’s recent naval drills near a critical shipping route heightened concerns ahead of renewed nuclear discussions with the United States.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but rhetoric has intensified. Former President Donald Trump has warned of potential military action should negotiations fail, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile environment.

Oil prices held relatively firm amid these developments, though broader commodity markets reflected risk-off sentiment.

Despite geopolitical tensions, precious metals retreated. Gold slipped toward the $4,900 per ounce level, while silver and platinum recorded sharper losses. The decline suggests profit-taking after recent rallies rather than a full unwind of safe-haven positioning.

Cryptocurrencies also softened, with Bitcoin trading near $68,300. The pullback comes amid broader volatility across speculative assets as traders recalibrate exposure to high-beta trades.

Artificial intelligence remains a central theme driving cross-asset volatility. While earnings growth in the US remains resilient, with companies delivering approximately 13% growth this season, concerns are building around what some strategists describe as “AI cannibalisation.”

The debate centres on whether AI adoption will enhance productivity or disrupt entire business models, particularly in software, media, and business services. Investment banks are already structuring thematic baskets that go long companies poised to benefit from AI adoption while shorting those potentially vulnerable to workflow displacement.

This divergence is adding dispersion within equity markets and amplifying stock-specific volatility.

Several notable corporate developments added to the narrative:

• BHP Group shares surged after reporting a more than 20% rise in half-year earnings, supported by strong copper prices.
• Apple Inc. announced a March 4 product launch event, fueling anticipation for new device announcements.
• Danaher Corporation is reportedly nearing a $10 billion acquisition of Masimo.
• Alibaba Group unveiled a major upgrade to its flagship AI model, intensifying competition in China’s fast-moving AI race.
• Advanced Micro Devices announced collaboration plans with Tata Consultancy Services to expand AI data-centre capabilities in India.

Markets are navigating a complex intersection of themes:

• Slowing but persistent inflation
• Uncertainty over the timing of Fed rate cuts
• Renewed geopolitical risks
• Earnings resilience versus valuation concerns
• Structural disruption from artificial intelligence

With liquidity thinner due to global holidays and catalysts limited early in the week, volatility may remain elevated as investors look toward fresh economic data and central bank commentary for direction.

For now, the tone is defensive. Whether this develops into a deeper correction or merely a consolidation phase will likely depend on upcoming inflation readings, Fed communication, and the sustainability of corporate earnings growth.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 19th February 2026.

Markets Walk a Tightrope: Strong Data Meets Rising Geopolitical Risk.

As traders approach the weekend, markets are balancing resilience in US data and corporate earnings against mounting geopolitical uncertainty. While equities have extended gains, underlying caution is becoming more visible, particularly in commodities and safe-haven assets.
The key macro driver remains escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Reports suggesting an increased likelihood of military confrontation have lifted oil sharply, with Brent crude holding above $70 and West Texas Intermediate trading above $65.

Any disruption from the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly a third of global oil supply, would have immediate inflation implications. That risk alone is enough to keep traders cautious, particularly ahead of a weekend when headline exposure cannot be managed intraday.

Gold has edged higher, while Bitcoin has slipped, a subtle signal that risk appetite remains selective rather than euphoric.

Thursday’s US jobless claims data is the only meaningful release on the calendar. Initial claims are expected at 225K, with continuing claims near 1.86 million. Recent labour market readings have shown gradual stabilisation rather than deterioration, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush into rate cuts.

Minutes from the January meeting revealed divisions within the central bank. Some officials remain concerned about persistent inflation, while others are open to easing later in the year. Despite hawkish undertones, market pricing still anticipates two rate cuts by year-end.

Unless jobless claims deviate significantly from expectations, the data is unlikely to shift that pricing meaningfully. For now, policy expectations remain steady, but sensitive to surprises.

US futures are hovering near flat after a solid session in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both advanced, led by renewed strength in mega-cap technology.

Nvidia once again played a central role in lifting sentiment, particularly following AI-related partnership developments with Meta Platforms. Given Nvidia’s heavy index weighting, its performance continues to exert disproportionate influence on broader benchmarks.

However, the AI narrative remains double-edged. While it drives index gains, it also fuels volatility in sectors perceived as vulnerable to disruption. Markets have recently shown a tendency toward sharp rotational moves, underscoring how fragile conviction can be beneath the surface.

In Asia, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and Kospi posted gains following Wall Street’s strength. In Europe, the FTSE 100 advanced after inflation data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may move towards rate cuts.

This divergence highlights an important theme for currency traders: monetary cycles are no longer synchronised globally. Relative policy expectations may drive FX volatility more than absolute levels.

At the moment, markets are not pricing panic, but they are pricing uncertainty.

Strong US data reduces the urgency for rate cuts. Elevated oil prices threaten to reintroduce inflationary pressure. And geopolitical risk adds a layer of unpredictability that can shift sentiment rapidly.

This environment typically produces choppy price action, sector rotation, and headline-driven volatility rather than clean, trending moves.

As we move towards the weekend, traders may find that disciplined positioning and controlled exposure matter more than directional conviction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 20th February 2026.

Brent Above $72: Markets React to Iran Tensions, Fed Uncertainty and AI Risks.

Global markets ended the week navigating a complex mix of artificial intelligence disruption fears, intensifying US-Iran tensions, and shifting monetary policy expectations. While US futures attempted a modest rebound, equity benchmarks across Asia delivered a mixed performance as investors reassessed risk exposure.

At the centre of the narrative: rising oil prices, renewed geopolitical uncertainty, and growing questions about how AI-driven transformation may reshape entire industries.

Crude prices surged to their highest level in six months after President Donald Trump warned Iran it had roughly two weeks to reach a nuclear agreement. Meanwhile, the US expanded its military presence in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers and fighter jets, increasing the risk premium embedded in energy markets.

• Brent crude oil rose above $72 per barrel.
• West Texas Intermediate crude climbed toward $67 per barrel.
• Weekly gains exceeded 6%.

A potential military confrontation would threaten oil flows from a region responsible for roughly one-third of global supply. Unsurprisingly, investors rotated toward traditional safe havens, lifting gold and the US dollar. The geopolitical backdrop has halted what had been a tentative recovery in global equities after weeks of volatility tied to AI-related disruption concerns.

Asian equities reflected the cautious tone.

Japan: The Nikkei 225 fell 1.2%, dragged lower by financial institutions exposed to private credit risks. Shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group dropped after its US partner, Blue Owl Capital, restricted withdrawals from one of its funds, triggering concerns about liquidity stress in private credit markets.

Major exporters also weakened:

• Toyota Motor Corporation declined nearly 4%.
• Sony Group Corporation fell over 3%.

Hong Kong & China: The Hang Seng Index slipped as trading resumed after Lunar New Year holidays, while mainland Chinese markets remained closed.

South Korea: The Outperformer

In contrast, the KOSPI surged over 2%, extending its position as one of the best-performing markets globally this year. Defence stocks led gains. Rising global military spending and continued retail enthusiasm tied to AI-related optimism have underpinned South Korea’s equity strength in 2026.

US markets closed lower Thursday. AI-related disruption remains a dominant theme. Several companies reported solid earnings but still faced sharp sell-offs, reflecting investor anxiety that artificial intelligence could rapidly erode traditional business models.

• Booking Holdings fell over 6% despite beating expectations. The stock is down roughly 25% this year amid concerns about AI-powered competition.
• Carvana dropped nearly 8% despite stronger profits.
• Walmart swung from gains to losses after issuing a cautious outlook.

Meanwhile, energy stocks benefited from rising crude prices. Occidental Petroleum surged over 9% following stronger-than-expected earnings.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is on track for its strongest weekly performance in four months, as traders scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher oil prices could complicate the Fed’s path. Policymakers have reiterated they want clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before easing further. Rising energy costs risk reigniting price pressures.

Economic data delivered mixed signals:

• Jobless claims declined, suggesting layoffs may be stabilising.
• Manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated.
• The US trade deficit widened more than expected.

The US dollar gained against the yen while the euro edged lower, reflecting haven demand and shifting rate expectations.

Attention also turned to Europe, where Christine Lagarde addressed speculation about a potential early departure from the European Central Bank.

Lagarde reaffirmed that her ‘baseline’ is to complete her term, emphasising her mission of safeguarding price stability and protecting the euro. However, reports suggesting political manoeuvring ahead of French elections have stirred debate about institutional independence.

The uncertainty adds another layer of complexity to European market sentiment at a time when global risk appetite is already fragile.

In contrast to broader caution, UK retail sales posted their strongest growth in 20 months.

According to official data:

• January sales volumes rose 1.8%, well above expectations.
• The budget surplus hit a record high for the month.

Improving inflation trends and earlier rate cuts appear to be supporting consumer confidence. For policymakers, the data offers cautious optimism that economic momentum may be stabilising.

Emerging Asian equities and currencies weakened as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions dampened risk appetite.

A sustained rise in energy costs could weigh heavily on oil-importing nations while boosting commodity exporters. Currency volatility is likely to remain elevated if geopolitical risks intensify.

Markets are currently balancing three powerful forces:

1. AI-driven structural disruption
2. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East
3. Uncertain central bank policy paths

Oil’s six-month high underscores how quickly geopolitical developments can reshape risk sentiment. At the same time, concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional sectors continue to pressure specific industries.

For now, investors appear cautious rather than panicked, rotating selectively into energy, defence, and safe-haven assets while trimming exposure to sectors perceived as vulnerable to technological disruption.

Whether diplomacy prevails in the Middle East and whether inflation remains contained will likely determine the next decisive move across global markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 20th February 2026.

Brent Above $72: Markets React to Iran Tensions, Fed Uncertainty and AI Risks.

Global markets ended the week navigating a complex mix of artificial intelligence disruption fears, intensifying US-Iran tensions, and shifting monetary policy expectations. While US futures attempted a modest rebound, equity benchmarks across Asia delivered a mixed performance as investors reassessed risk exposure.

At the centre of the narrative: rising oil prices, renewed geopolitical uncertainty, and growing questions about how AI-driven transformation may reshape entire industries.

Crude prices surged to their highest level in six months after President Donald Trump warned Iran it had roughly two weeks to reach a nuclear agreement. Meanwhile, the US expanded its military presence in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers and fighter jets, increasing the risk premium embedded in energy markets.

• Brent crude oil rose above $72 per barrel.
• West Texas Intermediate crude climbed toward $67 per barrel.
• Weekly gains exceeded 6%.

A potential military confrontation would threaten oil flows from a region responsible for roughly one-third of global supply. Unsurprisingly, investors rotated toward traditional safe havens, lifting gold and the US dollar. The geopolitical backdrop has halted what had been a tentative recovery in global equities after weeks of volatility tied to AI-related disruption concerns.

Asian equities reflected the cautious tone.

Japan: The Nikkei 225 fell 1.2%, dragged lower by financial institutions exposed to private credit risks. Shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group dropped after its US partner, Blue Owl Capital, restricted withdrawals from one of its funds, triggering concerns about liquidity stress in private credit markets.

Major exporters also weakened:

• Toyota Motor Corporation declined nearly 4%.
• Sony Group Corporation fell over 3%.

Hong Kong & China: The Hang Seng Index slipped as trading resumed after Lunar New Year holidays, while mainland Chinese markets remained closed.

South Korea: The Outperformer

In contrast, the KOSPI surged over 2%, extending its position as one of the best-performing markets globally this year. Defence stocks led gains. Rising global military spending and continued retail enthusiasm tied to AI-related optimism have underpinned South Korea’s equity strength in 2026.

US markets closed lower Thursday. AI-related disruption remains a dominant theme. Several companies reported solid earnings but still faced sharp sell-offs, reflecting investor anxiety that artificial intelligence could rapidly erode traditional business models.

• Booking Holdings fell over 6% despite beating expectations. The stock is down roughly 25% this year amid concerns about AI-powered competition.
• Carvana dropped nearly 8% despite stronger profits.
• Walmart swung from gains to losses after issuing a cautious outlook.

Meanwhile, energy stocks benefited from rising crude prices. Occidental Petroleum surged over 9% following stronger-than-expected earnings.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is on track for its strongest weekly performance in four months, as traders scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher oil prices could complicate the Fed’s path. Policymakers have reiterated they want clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before easing further. Rising energy costs risk reigniting price pressures.

Economic data delivered mixed signals:

• Jobless claims declined, suggesting layoffs may be stabilising.
• Manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated.
• The US trade deficit widened more than expected.

The US dollar gained against the yen while the euro edged lower, reflecting haven demand and shifting rate expectations.

Attention also turned to Europe, where Christine Lagarde addressed speculation about a potential early departure from the European Central Bank.

Lagarde reaffirmed that her ‘baseline’ is to complete her term, emphasising her mission of safeguarding price stability and protecting the euro. However, reports suggesting political manoeuvring ahead of French elections have stirred debate about institutional independence.

The uncertainty adds another layer of complexity to European market sentiment at a time when global risk appetite is already fragile.

In contrast to broader caution, UK retail sales posted their strongest growth in 20 months.

According to official data:

• January sales volumes rose 1.8%, well above expectations.
• The budget surplus hit a record high for the month.

Improving inflation trends and earlier rate cuts appear to be supporting consumer confidence. For policymakers, the data offers cautious optimism that economic momentum may be stabilising.

Emerging Asian equities and currencies weakened as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions dampened risk appetite.

A sustained rise in energy costs could weigh heavily on oil-importing nations while boosting commodity exporters. Currency volatility is likely to remain elevated if geopolitical risks intensify.

Markets are currently balancing three powerful forces:

1. AI-driven structural disruption
2. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East
3. Uncertain central bank policy paths

Oil’s six-month high underscores how quickly geopolitical developments can reshape risk sentiment. At the same time, concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional sectors continue to pressure specific industries.

For now, investors appear cautious rather than panicked, rotating selectively into energy, defence, and safe-haven assets while trimming exposure to sectors perceived as vulnerable to technological disruption.

Whether diplomacy prevails in the Middle East and whether inflation remains contained will likely determine the next decisive move across global markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.