FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 26, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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Moody's decision to maintain France's rating has weakened one of the near-term risks for the euro. On Friday, the rating remained at Aa3, although the outlook is still negative. After expectations of a downgrade, this gives the European currency reason to recover. However, budget disagreements and high borrowing costs continue to limit confidence in French assets.

The beginning of the week is also accompanied by a decline in US bond yields. This reduces the interest rate attractiveness of the dollar and helps EURUSD. The market mainly expects the Fed and ECB to maintain rates at upcoming meetings, so attention shifts to further signals from regulators. A pause by the Fed itself does not necessarily mean a refusal to raise rates subsequently.

Weak October business activity data in France remind us of the vulnerability of the regional economy. Therefore, improved sentiment following the rating decision does not eliminate all reasons for caution. A resumption of rising US yields or debt tension could bring pressure back on the euro. As long as these risks do not intensify, the combination of local relief and a weaker dollar supports the EURUSD growth scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1220, SL 1.1195, TP 1.1275

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Analysis of margin levels for October 27, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4027.22-4077.82, TP1-3976.72, TP2-3825.72.

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Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4150.00–4200.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating strong selling pressure.

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Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4160.00-4180.00 and 4120.00-4140.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below these ranges, indicating strong selling pressure.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 23.10.2026.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4: 4027.22.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2: 4077.82.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 23.10.2026 – 3976.72.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SWCZ – 3825.72.

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Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4027.22-4077.82, Take Profit 1 – 3976.72, Take Profit 2 – 3825.72.

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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 30 October 2026

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XAUUSD: BUY 4011.92, SL 3946.92, TP 4154.92



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For gold, the main check of the week will be the Fed's position. The market mostly expects to keep the rate on October 28, while the decline in US yields at the beginning of the week reduces the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets relative to metal. A weaker dollar also facilitates buying gold with other currencies. This combination creates conditions for XAUUSD recovery.

However, the expected pause does not yet mean the end of tightening: expensive energy supports inflationary risks and expectations of a December rate hike. The PCE release will test the sustainability of these concerns. As long as yields do not resume rising, the weekly scenario allows for gold strength; hard signals from the Fed or accelerating inflation could cancel this out.

Trading idea: BUY 4011.92, SL 3946.92, TP 4154.92

#SP500: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444



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Reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon will be the main test for US stocks. After recent disappointments, investors are more closely evaluating the return on AI spending. Expected earnings growth supports the market, but high expectations raise the cost of weak forecasts. For #SP500, this maintains the risk of sales even with formal beats in estimates for the past quarter.

Declining US yields and a potential Fed pause ease the cost of money, however, the prospect of another rate hike limits this effect. Expensive energy simultaneously increases corporate costs and consumer expenses. As long as reports do not dispel doubts about future profits, the weekly priority remains index decline. Strong company forecasts could change this scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444

#BRENT: SELL 109.58, SL 112.78, TP 103.18



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Oil begins the week under the influence of new diplomatic efforts around Iran. Reports of Qatari mediation reduce fears of further supply deterioration and provide grounds to reduce the risk premium for disruptions. This supports the downside scenario for #BRENT, although negotiations have not yet confirmed either a sustainable cessation of conflict or a recovery in oil exports.

Threats to energy infrastructure and shipping remain, so the potential for cheaper prices depends on news regarding transport security. US inventory data will help assess raw material availability, but one cannot assume inventory growth as a fact in advance. With continued diplomatic contacts and no new major disruptions, pressure on oil may persist; escalation could quickly invalidate the sell idea.

Trading idea: SELL 109.58, SL 112.78, TP 103.18

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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 28, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

USDJPY:

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The yield on US ten-year bonds remains around 5%, maintaining the dollar's interest rate support against the yen ahead of the Fed's decision. In the absence of a signal for imminent policy easing, US assets may retain their appeal. However, the mere maintenance of the rate is already expected by the market and does not guarantee further USDJPY growth: December guidance will be decisive.

The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Friday; current expectations suggest a pause. Without a fresh signal to accelerate tightening, it is difficult for the yen to quickly close the interest rate gap. At the same time, rising inflation risks could prompt the Japanese regulator to adopt stricter stances, so the expectation of the meeting limits confidence in continued yen weakening.

Yesterday, the Japanese Finance Minister again stated readiness for decisive action in the foreign exchange market. This poses a specific risk to the bullish idea, although the warning does not yet mean an intervention has been carried out. As long as US yields remain stable, their support for the dollar only moderately outweighs this risk. The base scenario allows for an increase in USDJPY; a decline in yields after the Fed could cancel it out.

Trading idea: BUY 157.95, SL 157.60, TP 158.65

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AI brings buyers back: US indices recover​

The AI sector has a new reason to grow. On October 26, Anthropic, the developer of Claude models, disclosed documents for its IPO. The company's rapid growth has renewed interest in artificial intelligence, although its massive development expenses still raise questions.

The US market closed in the green: S&P 500 gained 0,7%, stocks #Microsoft rose by approximately 1.5%, #Amazon — by 0.4%. The semiconductor index also rose significantly, confirming the return of buyers to the technology sector.

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How Anthropic supports Microsoft and Amazon

Both companies provide the developer with cloud computing resources, and their platforms help sell access to Claude models. The growing demand for AI is increasing the need for computing power and creating opportunities to expand cloud business. However, building infrastructure requires more and more money.

For #NQ100 and #SP500 this is a fundamental issue: technology giants carry significant weight in indices, so their results can set the direction for the entire market.

The risk of an expensive AI race, discussed in the previous article, remains. Anthropic's documents showed both rapid revenue growth and substantial losses. Interest in the technology remains high, but investors need confirmation that investments can generate profits. The next test will be provided by Microsoft and Amazon's reports this week.

Where the recovery may continue

The most likely scenario for #NQ100 and #SP500 is an attempt to develop a rebound from the October lows. However, a confident reversal is still far off: indices are only returning to nearby resistance levels.

#NQ100 trades around 29 230. A breakout above 29 500 will allow expecting movement towards 29 750. For #SP500, which is located near 7 670, the nearest milestone is— 7 700, the next recovery target is— 7 750.

Among stocks, looks more confident #Microsoft: the recovery from the $520 area has brought the price to $532,70. Overcoming $535–536 opens the path to $543–550. #Amazon is lagging behind so far and holds around $248,90 after a sharp pullback. For movement towards $254–258 the stock first needs to consolidate above $250; drawdown under $245 will increase pressure.

According to analysts FreshForex, #NQ100 and #SP500 retain growth potential, and the return of interest in the AI sector supports #Microsoft and #Amazon. Upcoming earnings reports could provide additional momentum for the recovery.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 29, 2026 BTCUSD

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BTCUSD: FLAT.

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The Bitcoin situation continues to follow the previously analyzed wave scenario.

The price rose slightly, but sellers immediately reacted by actively pushing the price down, which caused the rate to return to its starting point for this rise.

However, it is unlikely that this marks the beginning of the final wave c of of the assumed double zigzag. Most likely, we will see one more weak attempt to rise, after which the expected longer decline will occur.

Thus, there is no need to rush into opening short positions at this time. It is better to spend today's trading day observing price behavior.

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