FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

[FreshForexTeam]

The calm before the storm: Crypto is preparing for its next move​

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As of July 29, 2026, the cryptocurrency market remains in wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. BTCUSD is trading around $63,700, ETHUSD near $1,900, and SOLUSD at approximately $73. Open interest continues to rise while funding rates remain neutral, suggesting that traders are building positions without committing to a clear market direction. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) has fallen into the 34–38% range — a level that has historically preceded significant price moves. The longer the market stays quiet, the stronger the eventual breakout could be.

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BTCUSD: Institutional investors remain cautious. Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains inconsistent. Strong inflows recorded on July 20–22 were followed by outflows on July 23–24, while net outflows narrowed to $11.6 million on July 27. Although selling pressure has eased, there is still no clear sign of sustained institutional buying.

ETHUSD: Strong technology, weak demand. Ethereum continues to underperform Bitcoin. After $70.7 million in ETF outflows on July 24, funds attracted only $11.7 million on July 27, indicating that investors are returning cautiously. The Fusaka network upgrade launched in May has significantly improved Ethereum’s scalability, but stronger technology alone has not yet been enough to offset the market’s limited appetite for risk.

SOLUSD: Risk appetite remains the key driver. Solana continues to attract institutional interest, with cumulative inflows into SOL ETFs reaching $1.14 billion. However, only $1 million of new inflows was recorded on July 27, highlighting the market’s cautious stance. Historically, Solana tends to react more aggressively to changes in investor sentiment, making Bitcoin’s next move a key factor for SOLUSD.

What could move the market?

Today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to be the main catalyst for cryptocurrency markets. Investors are split between expectations of unchanged rates and the possibility of a more hawkish policy stance. However, the accompanying statement may prove even more important than the decision itself, as it will influence both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. A more dovish tone could support Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and lift Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD) alongside it. Conversely, a hawkish message or a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger another wave of selling across the crypto market.

According to FreshForex analysts, today’s calm should not be mistaken for inactivity — it may simply be the market preparing for its next major move. Experienced traders know that periods of low volatility often create the foundation for the strongest trends.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 30, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 64100, SL 62900, TP 68900

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There were no significant developments in Bitcoin during the previous trading session. The price continued to trade confidently within the expanding range, remaining near its lower boundary.

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As a result, the previously discussed bullish outlook remains unchanged. The expected rally is still likely to be driven by the development of the final fifth wave of the leading diagonal.

The completion of this move would also mark the end of Wave 1, after which a corrective pullback is expected to develop, most likely in the form of a simple zigzag.

Under these conditions, the current market environment continues to favor long positions.

Investment idea: BUY 64100, SL 62900, TP 68900.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 31, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1%, providing the market with no new reason for a sustained strengthening of the yen. One board member supported a rate increase, while the central bank maintained the possibility of further action if inflation risks intensify. However, the decision to leave the rate unchanged supported a recovery in USDJPY after the sharp decline during the previous session.

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The interest rate differential remains the main factor supporting the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s rate stands within the 3.50–3.75% range, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remains above 4.6%. Under these conditions, interest rate differential trades remain attractive, while the absence of immediate tightening by the Bank of Japan limits demand for the yen.

The main risk to the USDJPY buying scenario remains confirmed action by the Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market and the possibility of renewed intervention if the yen weakens again. This factor could trigger a sharp reversal, meaning that the pair’s upside potential is not one-sided. Nevertheless, following the Bank of Japan’s decision, the current fundamental momentum continues to favor a further recovery in USDJPY.

Trading idea: BUY 160.80, SL 160.25, TP 161.90

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[FreshForexTeam]

Earnings season splits major tech stocks​

Major technology companies reported strong revenue growth, particularly in cloud services, advertising, and digital products. However, the market reaction has been mixed. Some companies have demonstrated that heavy investments are already supporting both revenue and profitability. Others have raised concerns, as rising costs put pressure on future financial stability.

Investors are no longer focusing solely on revenue figures. The key question now is how quickly investments in artificial intelligence, data centers, and new infrastructure will pay off. Companies showing clear returns are receiving market support, while high spending without proportional profit growth may increase pressure on stock prices.

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Key drivers of U.S. stocks:

• #Microsoft — Azure revenue grew by 43%, confirming strong returns on large-scale investments
• #Amazon — AWS sales increased by 37%, strengthening confidence in its investment strategy
• #Meta (Facebook) — total revenue rose by 28%, but heavy infrastructure spending significantly reduced free cash flow
• #Google — cloud revenue surged by 82%, though rising costs continue to keep investors cautious
• #Apple — quarterly revenue increased by 16%; strong sales support the company, but supply constraints may limit future growth

These companies reflect different outcomes of the same investment race. #Microsoft and #Amazon appear more resilient due to rapid cloud growth. #Google is also expanding its cloud business but with higher spending. Meta remains more dependent on advertising and has yet to monetize cloud infrastructure. #Apple is less involved in aggressive spending but remains sensitive to supply chain conditions.

According to FreshForex analysts, the coming months will depend heavily on earnings quality. The market will continue comparing revenue growth with development costs. The key factor is whether companies can maintain investment momentum without weakening financial stability. Investor appetite for higher-risk assets will also play a role. Even in a positive scenario, managing risk and preparing for changing market conditions remains essential.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for August 3, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD — ISM Manufacturing Index

EURUSD:

The euro remains supported after the ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged in July. Maintaining the existing policy settings gave the market no reason to expect immediate monetary easing, allowing the single currency to retain some demand. However, the Federal Reserve’s rate remains higher, and the European backdrop alone is not strong enough to generate sustained gains.

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The main driver of the current session is US dollar weakness following confirmed coordinated operations by the United States and Japan to support the yen. Pressure on the dollar has spread beyond USDJPY: the US Dollar Index remains lower after a notable weekly decline, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has fallen. This combination supports EURUSD despite the interest rate differential remaining in favor of the United States.

The market is awaiting US manufacturing activity data, which could alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. A strong report may restore some demand for the dollar, but until its release, the weakening impulse in the US currency remains dominant. If the current fundamental backdrop persists, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in EURUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1530, SL 1.1495, TP 1.1605

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[FreshForexTeam]

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 07 August 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00

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Gold begins the week with moderate support as a weaker US dollar and a sharp decline in oil prices ease concerns about renewed inflationary pressure. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, alongside support from some policymakers for a rate increase, is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for the metal.

The main test will come from the US labor market data. Weak figures could reduce expectations of a rate increase and strengthen interest in XAUUSD, while a strong report may restore pressure. If the US dollar remains subdued and oil market conditions stay stable, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in gold.

Trading idea: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00

#SP500: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670

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The #SP500 is receiving support from lower oil prices, which reduce the risk of renewed pressure on corporate costs and consumer demand. The earnings season also remains a source of resilience, although the market’s response to technology sector results is becoming more selective.

This week, the index’s direction will be shaped by employment data and further corporate earnings reports. A strong labor market could revive expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase and intensify pressure from elevated yields. For now, the decline in the energy risk premium is supporting demand for equities, leaving a cautious upside scenario as the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670

#BRENT: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50

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Brent begins the week with a sharp decline after the United States cancelled new strikes against Iran and hopes for renewed negotiations increased. The restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the risk premium, while higher OPEC+ production quotas from September are reinforcing expectations of more abundant supply.

Negotiations could still break down, while regional supplies remain constrained, meaning the decline in oil prices may not be one-sided. Nevertheless, part of the geopolitical premium has already been removed, while demand forecasts remain restrained. If the diplomatic scenario remains intact, the priority stays with further downside in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50

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[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for August 4, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4040.30–4090.80, TP1 3989.90, TP2 3865.00.​

Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 4035.00–4070.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.



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Medium-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 4022.00–4034.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading above this range, indicating seller weakness.

From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the low of July 29, 2026.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4040.30.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4090.80.

Intraday target: a retest of the July 29, 2026 low at 3989.90.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 3865.00.



Trading idea: consider selling within the favorable price range once a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 4040.30–4090.80, Take Profit 1: 3989.90, Take Profit 2: 3865.00.

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[FreshForexTeam]

USDJPY Reverses from 40-Year High​

The USDJPY pair retreated from multi-decade highs following a rare joint intervention by the United States and Japan. In July, quotes climbed to 163.99 — the highest level in around 40 years — but by August 4, they had declined to the 157.7 area. At the peak of yen strengthening, the pair dropped to 155.20. A similar situation occurred in July 2024, when the pair rose to 161.9 and then fell to 139.7 over the following months.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed that on July 31 it bought yen jointly with the U.S. Treasury. According to Reuters, the U.S. side used euros rather than dollars for the operation. This approach helped support the Japanese currency without creating the impression that Washington was aiming to weaken the dollar.

Factors behind yen strengthening:

• Joint intervention. U.S. participation significantly amplified the impact of the operation and increased market confidence in authorities’ determination to halt the yen’s decline. For traders, this signaled that further USDJPY growth could face not only Japan’s actions but also support from Washington.
• Threat of further action. Japanese authorities stated they are ready to intervene again if yen weakness becomes excessively rapid. The risk of sudden intervention makes market participants more cautious about opening new positions against the yen.
• Closing speculative positions. The sharp drop in USDJPY forced traders to take profits on bets against the yen. The mass closing of such positions accelerated the pair’s decline and boosted short-term demand for the Japanese currency.

At the same time, fundamental pressure on the yen has not disappeared. Interest rates in Japan remain lower than in the U.S., so the dollar still holds a yield advantage. Without further tightening by the Bank of Japan, the effect of the intervention may gradually fade.

In the near term, key levels for USDJPY are 155 and 160. A move below 155 could strengthen the yen further, while a return above 160 would indicate that the impact of the intervention is weakening.

According to FreshForex analysts, the risk of sharp USDJPY movements remains high. Traders should closely monitor statements from Japanese and U.S. authorities, Bank of Japan decisions, and U.S. labor market data. The possibility of another intervention creates trading opportunities but also increases the risk of sudden reversals.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 5, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD – ISM Services PMI

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fresh fundamental support following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting. The document showed that policymakers were paying increased attention to inflation risks and considering the possibility of further rate increases. Additional support came from data showing that real wages rose by 1.6% in June, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase and strengthening the case for monetary policy normalization.

Pressure on USDJPY is also being reinforced by the recent joint intervention by the United States and Japan in support of the yen. Officials indicated that they were prepared to act again, while the US side publicly backed Tokyo’s efforts. At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a reduced probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase are diminishing the appeal of interest rate differential trades.

Slower growth in Japan’s services sector remains a limiting factor, meaning that sustained yen appreciation is not guaranteed. Strong US ADP or ISM data could also restore demand for the dollar. Nevertheless, the combination of a weaker dollar impulse, expectations of further Bank of Japan action, and the risk of renewed official measures makes a decline in USDJPY the more resilient base-case scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 157.50, SL 158.15, TP 155.90

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[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for August 6, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 29364.4-29673.9, TP1-29951.3, TP2-30963.1.

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Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29700.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.



Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 27660.0–27760.0 and 29710.0–29810.0 ranges. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.

From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of 05.08.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29673.9.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29364.4.

Intraday target: a retest of the 05.08.2026 high at 29951.3.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30963.1.



Investment recommendation: buy from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 29364.4-29673.9, Take Profit 1-29951.3, Take Profit 2-30963.1.

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[FreshForexTeam]

XAUUSD Surges in One Day: Gold Shocks the Market Again!​

Gold delivered one of its strongest moves in recent months. During the August 5 trading session, XAUUSD gained about 4.4% and climbed above $4,250 per ounce — reaching its highest level in roughly seven weeks. The rally was especially notable after several months of decline. As recently as August 3, gold was trading near $4,030, meaning its value increased by more than 5% in just a few sessions!

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Factors behind XAUUSD growth:

• Weaker dollar. The decline of the U.S. currency made gold cheaper for buyers from other countries and supported demand. At the same time, falling government bond yields reduced the advantage of interest-bearing assets over gold, which does not generate income on its own.
• Weak U.S. data. The private sector created fewer jobs than expected. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from around 67% to 55%, providing an additional reason to buy gold.
• Falling oil prices. Talks between Iran and Oman increased hopes for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressure and reduce the need for further interest rate hikes.
• Return of buyers. Holding the key psychological level of $4,000 attracted traders expecting a rebound after a prolonged correction. Accelerating growth forced the closure of short positions, further strengthening the upward momentum.

Despite the sharp jump, gold is still trading well below its January all-time high. Therefore, the current move could mark either the beginning of a new recovery phase or a short-term reaction to shifting expectations regarding Fed policy.

According to FreshForex analysts, a move above $4,300 will confirm buyer strength and open the way for further growth, making current levels potentially attractive for buying gold. A drop back below $4,100 would weaken this scenario and indicate fading upward momentum.

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Profit from the movement​

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