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FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

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Market Fundamental Analysis for June 1, 2026 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index

USDJPY:

01.06 JPY.png​

USD/JPY is holding near 159.45–159.50, as the US dollar keeps its advantage amid the yield gap and demand for the US currency. The yen remains vulnerable despite expectations of a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan in June. Investors are waiting for new signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda, but the market does not yet see a sufficiently firm position that could quickly shift the balance in favor of the Japanese currency.

The fundamental background supports the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions and rising oil-related risks increase inflation concerns in the US, which may encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a stricter position. For Japan, expensive energy is also a problem, but the Bank of Japan is acting cautiously to avoid damaging the economic recovery. Therefore, even expectations of a rate hike do not guarantee a stable strengthening of the yen.

The base scenario for today is growth in USD/JPY. The main risk for buying is the pair’s proximity to the area where Japanese authorities may intensify verbal warnings about the currency market. Nevertheless, there are currently no direct signs of intervention, while the difference in monetary policy expectations remains in favor of the US dollar. Therefore, with the current news background preserved, buying remains preferable.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.45, SL 159.15, TP 160.35
 

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | June 5, 2026​


XAUUSD: BUY 4518.50, SL 4478.50, TP 4645.50

Недельный 1.png​


Gold starts the week near $4,518–4,522 per ounce: a stronger dollar and interest rate expectations limit further growth, but the conflict in the Middle East continues to support demand for safe-haven assets. The market is waiting for signals from the Fed and news on US-Iran talks, so sharp price swings remain possible.

On the weekly horizon, the baseline scenario remains moderately positive: tensions around energy supplies increase inflation risks, while central bank demand supports gold on pullbacks. Dollar strength may slow the move, but if the geopolitical backdrop worsens, buyers could push the price back above current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4518.50, SL 4478.50, TP 4645.50




#SP500: BUY 7616, SL 7550, TP 7820

Недельный 2.png​

The S&P 500 enters June near record highs: the index is trading around 7,580, while the futures price is close to 7,616. The market is supported by strong earnings expectations and demand for companies linked to artificial intelligence. Rising oil prices remain the main limiting factor, as they increase concerns about inflation.

This week, investors will focus on US employment data and Fed comments. If the reports do not show a sharp overheating of the economy, demand for equities may remain stable. However, the high concentration of growth in the technology sector increases the risk of profit-taking, so the buy scenario looks cautious.

Trading recommendation: BUY 7616, SL 7550, TP 7820




#BRENT: BUY 93.20, SL 90.80, TP 100.40

Недельный 3.png​

Brent starts the week near $93.10–93.30 per barrel after gaining more than 2%. The key driver is tension in the Persian Gulf region and uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations. The market is concerned about possible supply disruptions, which offsets part of the pressure from weaker Chinese oil imports in May.

Over the week, the price may remain supported while Middle East news stays worrying. Growth is limited by expectations of supply recovery if the ceasefire is extended, as well as buyer caution after the May decline. The baseline scenario is moderate growth with high sensitivity to news.

Trading recommendation: BUY 93.20, SL 90.80, TP 100.40
 

Analysis of margin levels for June 2, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 30079.8-30357.3, TP1-30634.8, TP2-31380.8.​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the current contract is located in the range, at quotes 29070.0–29360.0. At the moment, investment operations on #NQ100 are being carried out above the specified range, which indicates the strength of buyers.

NQ1001.jpg​

Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes of the medium-term trend is located in the range, at quotes 29950.0–30020.0 and 30300.0–30370.0. At the moment, investment operations on #NQ100 are being carried out inside the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the point of view of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the maximum of 01.06.2026.

The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 30357.3.

The quote of the upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 30079.8.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 01.06.2026–30634.8.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 31380.8.

NQ1002.jpg​

Investment recommendations: purchases from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern is formed.

Buy: 30079.8-30357.3, Take Profit 1-30634.8, Take Profit 2-31380.8.
 

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 3, 2026 EURUSD​

Events to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD:

EURUSDH4.png​

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1630, remaining under pressure due to steady demand for the US dollar. The American currency is supported by tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and investors’ cautious attitude toward risk assets. An additional factor was the US labor market data: the number of job openings in April rose to 7.6 million, indicating continued steady demand for labor.

For the euro, the situation is complicated by accelerating inflation in the eurozone. According to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate, annual consumer price growth in May rose to 3.2% after 3.0% in April. Rising energy prices increase pressure on businesses and households, while also complicating the ECB’s task. At the same time, the eurozone economy remains sensitive to expensive resources and weak external demand.

In the US, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for April rose by 3.8% year-on-year, while the core indicator increased by 3.3% year-on-year. Such dynamics reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing of Federal Reserve policy and support the dollar. If geopolitical tensions and strong US data persist, EUR/USD may continue to decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1540
 

Oil back in the spotlight!​

Oil #WTI and #BRENT remain among the most sensitive assets in the market. Prices continue to be supported by tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations, restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of supply disruptions. According to Reuters, on June 2, #BRENT closed near $96 per barrel, while #WTI settled around $93.76, extending gains amid expectations of new developments regarding Iran and global oil supplies.
The key driver for the market remains geopolitics. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a major risk point, as a significant share of global oil and gas flows passes through this route, and any restrictions on its operation increase supply concerns. Additional pressure comes from attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure, declining oil inventories ahead of the high-demand summer season, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement involving Iran. At the same time, upside potential is being limited by signs of weakening demand. Elevated prices are already forcing consumers and industries to reduce consumption, while the International Energy Agency has reported softer demand from both the petrochemical and aviation sectors.

image.png​

5 factors currently driving #WTI and #BRENT:
  • The Strait of Hormuz. Restrictions on shipping through one of the world’s most important oil transit routes support prices and increase the risk premium.
  • US-Iran negotiations. Any signs of a breakthrough agreement could push prices lower, while failed talks or renewed escalation could trigger another strong rally.
  • Oil inventories. Traders are closely monitoring stockpiles in the US and globally. Continued inventory declines ahead of the summer season may provide further support for WTI and BRENT.
  • Demand from China, aviation, and petrochemicals. If high prices begin to weigh more heavily on consumption, oil may enter a corrective phase.
  • Production growth outside the Middle East. The US, Brazil, Argentina, and other producers are partially offsetting supply shortages, but so far not enough to fully ease market tensions.
Changes in oil prices also affect the shares of major energy companies. Rising #WTI and #BRENT prices typically support oil producers such as ExxonMobil (#Exxon), Chevron (#Chevron), ConocoPhillips (#ConPhillip), Shell (#Shell), BP (#BP), and TotalEnergies (#Total). Higher oil prices generally boost revenue and profit margins for producers, as they can sell crude at higher prices while operating costs remain relatively stable. This can improve financial performance and increase investor interest in their stocks.
 

Elliott wave analysis of the market for June 4, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 59500, SL 62500, TP 48000.​

04.06 BTC.png​
It was previously assumed that the alternative scenario was the most likely one for this asset. This scenario предполагает the formation of a more complex large corrective structure—a triple zigzag. This interpretation explains the resumption of the downward price movement that we are currently observing.

For an extended period, the price traded within a broad range while forming a simple zigzag, with a leading diagonal triangle serving as wave (a). Recently, this correction appears to have been completed, and the asset transitioned into a directional downward movement in an impulsive form.

During yesterday’s trading session, a critical level confirming the bearish scenario was also breached.

In the near future, further downside movement is expected, making short positions worth considering.

Investment idea: SELL 59500, SL 62500, TP 48000.
 

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 5, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

GBPUSDH4.png​

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3425, ending the week under moderate pressure. The pound is being held back from a sharper decline by expectations that the Bank of England will not rush to change its interest rate. However, the external backdrop remains unfavorable. Tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and demand for the US dollar limit interest in the British currency.

The British economy is sensitive to expensive energy resources, as higher fuel and electricity prices increase the burden on businesses and consumers. This may restrain domestic demand and worsen expectations for economic growth. At the same time, high inflation does not allow the Bank of England to act freely, so the pound does not receive a strong fundamental advantage.

The key event of the day remains US employment statistics. If the data proves resilient, the market may strengthen its view that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious policy for longer. In this scenario, the dollar may receive additional support, while GBP/USD may continue declining toward the nearest target levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3455, TP 1.3335
 
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